At this point, the intention of the United States (U.S.) to keep the primacy in Iraq and Syria is clear enough. The U.S. is looking forward to playing a bigger role after the decline of its prominence in the last few years. Therefore, the next American president and his or her policy will help shape the geopolitical fate of the Middle East. This paper argues that the next president will like to be Mrs. Hilary Clinton with a Republican tendency.
The US is heading to the presidential election and inauguration of a president-elect on January 20th 2017. Over the last few weeks, we witnessed heated election campaigns between candidates of the two main parties (Democrat and Republican) to win the minds and hearts of American people.
While the Senate is chaired by the democrat, Mr. Joe Biden, the Congress is chaired by the republican Mr. Paul Ryan, seeming to have a balance. However, the republicans occupied the majority of the two houses. Nonetheless, the democrats have won the two terms of President Obama’s presidency.
President Obama will try during his tenure to strengthen the American role in the Middle Eastern region especially in Iraq or at least to keep the status quo, using “smart power.” However, republican candidates will support sending combat forces to fight Isis, they also support efforts to diminish the Iranian and Russian role and suppress local groups opposing the US policy in Iraq and Syria and the whole Middle Eastern region.
According to some US polls, the Americans are not satisfied with Obama’s performance during his second term of presidency, mainly due to the economic turmoil, in addition to his refusal to send ground troops to fight ISIS in Syria.
Supposing that ISIS is an extension of al-Qaida, the continuous efforts by the American administration to eliminate these terrorist groups which target the whole world have born no fruits. Although there are allegations to some Iraqi politicians and parliamentarians who secretly support these terrorist groups, but we are not here in a position to confirm or deny these allegations, what we try here is to match between what the US administration says and what the indications in reality are.
Looking into the presidential candidates, Mr. Donald Trump, who is a forerunner and his policies are having a huge popularity. Nonetheless, his reputations have been damaged by Pope and other competitors opposing to his policies. In addition to the fact his attitude is inconsistent with the American approach to renounce racism and extremism and respect for individual and religious freedom.
While other Republican candidates like Senator Marco Rubio (withdrew recently) a member of foreign relations committee, a neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson (also withdrew) and Senator Ted Cruz and other republicans would have had equal opportunities of winning republican nomination, but they were all more aggressive compared to their democrat candidates. The republicans will defend the aggressive American policy as a main element for their campaign and keep blaming President Obama for the unrest that spread in the Middle East.
With regard to Democratic Party nominees, Mrs. Hillary Clinton and Mr. Burney Sanders, there will be no chance for Mr. Sanders compared Mrs. Clinton. She has accumulated knowledge and experiences as a former Secretary of State, ex-presidential candidate, and a former First Lady for two terms (1993-2001). She is more willing to use military power than President Obama and to consolidate a bigger role in foreign policies and keep agreements especially with regard to the Iranian nuclear file. She will make tremendous efforts to correct President Obama’s setbacks and mistakes made with some of the US allies like Turkey and Saudi Arabia which will help her gain more support especially from her party.
As aforementioned above, many factors indicate that the next US president will become Mrs. Clinton with a republican orientation, supporting the use of military and soft power to deal with the US foreign policy priorities and pursuing its interests and influence in the region.
Regarding domestic policy and chances of whether Mrs. Clinton will succeed at the domestic level, it is another story to be continued.
Saifuldeen al- Darrajy
Chairperson of Mada Organization for Development and Strategic Studies